Abstract
Switchback experiments and other clustered randomized designs are widely used on online platforms, but the clustered, time-dependent nature of these designs can make standard variance reduction methods behave differently than in standard A/B tests. We evaluate design-aware variance reduction methods for switchbacks---CUPED, CUPAC (ML-based covariate adjustment), and doubly robust (DR) estimators---relative to a baseline switchback analysis with cluster-robust standard errors. Through a hierarchical simulation framework that varies key regime parameters—number of clusters, cluster-size imbalance, within-cluster autocorrelation, carryover, and predictive signal strength—we evaluate validity (false positive rate and confidence interval coverage) and efficiency (standard error reduction, power, and minimum detectable effect as a function of run length). We also include a sensitivity analysis for cross-cluster spillovers to quantify bias and inference degradation under mild interference. The primary outcome is a practitioner-oriented regime map: when CUPED, CUPAC, or DR are most beneficial, and when time and cluster dependence and finite-cluster effects limit improvements.
Abstract
Can more economically successful parents have stronger influence on their kids? This paper tests empirically whether economic achievement of parents is associated with higher similarity in norms and values between them and their children. I use German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) survey data and show that parental income strengthens transmission of trust and democratic preferences from parents to their children. Both cross-sectional differences and changes of parental income over time explain differences in transmission of values and norms. I also show that results are robust to various alternative interpretations and sample restrictions.
Presented at:
GLO-Berlin-2024
47th EBES Conference
Abstract
Does increasing the time allocated to a predictive task improve quality of individual predictions and accuracy of beliefs? In our online experiment, participants observe data from a bivariate data-generating process with asymmetrically correlated variables and make predictions for new data points. When participants choose the time they devote to the predictive task endogenously, it is positively correlated with the accuracy of their predictions; this finding remains robust after controlling for individual characteristics. Moreover, exogenous variables that have a relatively simple relationship with the outcome variable are identified more accurately when participants spend more time on the task, whereas this does not hold for variables with a more complex relationship. However, exogenously increasing the time required for a predictive task does not affect the accuracy of predictions. Taken together, the findings suggest that time is a significant predictor of the accuracy of individual predictions and beliefs; nonetheless, exogenous time constraints appear ineffective in online experiments.
Awarded: Orlando Bravo Center for Economic Research Award
Abstract
This paper studies historical origins and persistence of culture of morality in places where enforcement of formal institutions is restricted by geographical factors. I develop a measure of local isolation due to irregularities of land surface and show that local isolation is associated with morality-related ethnic folklore. Moreover, importance of morality from World Values Survey is robustly positively correlated with local isolation on subnational level. Finally, I show that differences in strength of individual morality values persist on population of second generation migrants surveyed by European Social Survey. I provide an extensive set of robustness checks to address alternative explanations and bring additional evidence on possible mechanisms driving these differences.
Presented at:
The 6th International Conference on European Economics and Politics
EconTR 2024
Accepted for:
3rd Bolzano Workshop on Historical Economics
Abstract
This paper studies the emergence of motivated beliefs in response to different information structures. I employ a simple urn-draw framework for belief elicitation, randomizing whether past ball draws provide information about future utility-relevant draws. An additional treatment arm increases the payoff per rewarded ball to explore the effect of stake size on belief distortions. The study finds no evidence of motivated beliefs, as participants' beliefs are, on average, the same across the treatment and control groups. Moreover, the distributions of participants' beliefs do not differ between the control and treatment groups. These results hold both conditional and unconditional on the ball color in the first round. Finally, increasing the payoff of a future ball draw does not induce belief distortions either.
Awarded: Orlando Bravo Center for Economic Research Award
Bones of War: Conflict and Health in Pre-Industrial Era (work in progress)
Abstract
Does conflict always impede health and development? This project empirically investigates the role of warfare in shaping health during the Pre-Industrial era, leveraging a unique dataset that documents the anthropometric characteristics of archaeologically discovered skeletons across Europe from the 11th to the 19th century. The study finds a robust positive correlation between historical battles and health among individuals born after those battles in localities that experienced conflict, as measured by femoral bone length—a common proxy for health. Conflict is associated with short-term health improvements: the increase in femoral length is statistically significant for generations born up to 100 years after the end of a conflict, with the correlation dissipating for later generations. The findings remain robust under flexible control strategies and sample restrictions.